Letters From A Tory has been considering the positives and pitfalls of an early election this morning:
But what of the Conservatives? Would they relish a 2009 election? What if the tax cuts had made a small difference to the national economic landscape, or Obama comes into office hailing Brown and the world follows him? These are not beyond the realms of possibility. If the tax cuts fail and unemployment rises sharply, Cameron et al would destroy Brown at the polls but would Brown fare any better if he waited until after a disastrous set of European Elections in June 2009 and poor council election results in spring/summer 2009 as well?
I think, from a purely partisan perspective, the Tories should welcome a 2009 election, regardless of the outcome. If the Labour Party won it would likely be with a significantly reduced majority, possibly even a minority government. An election win for Labour in 2009 would most likely precipitate an election within the next few years, and leave them to struggle with the financial crisis and be landed with the blame for their own scorched Earth policies.
From the perspective of the country at large, the sooner we are allowed to vote on the Labour Party under Gordon Brown, the better it will be for our democracy.
In fact, the only people who really stand to lose substantially are the Labour Party. Even then it could be seen as a matter of cutting their losses: they might as well go for it now while they have a reasonable expectation of winning, instead of waiting till the tides turn back against them. If Brown called an election now he could claim to have won a mandate to borrow and spend as much as he liked.
The best thing that the Tories can do is to ramp up expectations for an early election. If Brown goes to the country, we’ve a chance of winning, or the possibility of a hung parliament. If he bottles out, he’ll be shown to be even more indecisive than he was the first time he bottled out.
But when in 2009? I can’t believe anybody is seriously expecting a Spring election regardless of who gets what out of Brown’s fiscal stimulus package. Cameron’s soundbite about tax cuts being not just for Christmas was a bullseye.
Unemployment, house repossessions, businesses going bust – all happening now and will continue increasing for at least another two Qtrs.
Meanwhile, Brown carries on revealing his unerring ability to frack up on most other stuff. Baby Peter, ignoring indepedent reviews on organ donation, misunderstanding prostitution – and those are the few that made the deadline in the last week.
Why the sweating?